Tom Cruise in “Top Gun: Maverick”
This weekend Tom Cruise has an opportunity to do one thing he is by no means executed earlier than — open a movie to greater than $100 million on the home field workplace.
The prolific actor, who has made a reputation for himself as a fearless stuntman, has generated greater than $4.2 billion on the home field workplace since 1981 however has by no means had a movie open to greater than $65 million.
After a number of pandemic-related delays, Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick” arrives in theaters this weekend with a 97% “Fresh” ranking from Rotten Tomatoes and powerful presale tickets.
“At this point, I’m seeing very little reason not to expect a domestic opening weekend well over $100 million, a mark that the film will probably reach in its first three days,” stated Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxWorkplace.com. “We’re not just talking about a new career best for Mr. Cruise, but also potentially some Memorial Day weekend records that may be going down.”
Robbins famous that there’s a lot of pent-up demand for “Top Gun: Maverick.” Not solely was it delayed a number of occasions on account of Covid, however sturdy phrase of mouth from critics has generated renewed curiosity within the sequel to the 1986 authentic, a pop-culture touchstone.
Box-office analysts at the moment foresee a home opening of between $98 million and $125 million for the movie.
Even if the movie doesn’t attain $100 million, it’s nonetheless anticipated to develop into Cruise’s highest opening weekend domestically. His present report is 2005’s “War of the Worlds,” which snared $64.8 million, in keeping with knowledge from Comscore.
“We can mostly chalk that odd factoid up to the reality that Tom Cruise has rarely attached himself to blockbuster franchises commanding front-loaded debuts,” stated Robbins. “The majority of his movies are built around star power and word of mouth generating long box office legs in a way that isn’t at the forefront of the industry’s mindset anymore.”
Robbins added that Cruise does not typically make sequels to films. The exception being the Mission: Impossible franchise and a second Jack Reacher movie in 2016. “Mission: Impossible – Fallout,” which was launched in 2018, is Cruise’s highest-grossing movie, making $220 million domestically and $791.1 million globally. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” is about to be launched subsequent yr.
Additionally, $100 million box-office debuts have solely develop into commonplace within the final decade, as ticket costs have risen considerably and fan-driven franchises comparable to Marvel and DC have enticed moviegoers to point out up on opening weekend in droves. This yr alone, because the movie show business tries to regain its legs after two years of pandemic restrictions, Warner Bros.’ “The Batman” and Disney’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” opened at over $100 million.
Cruise’s legacy on the field workplace is about longevity, stated Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
“As one of the few stars who has built a career out of the long-term playability of his films, Cruise has changed the rules by not chasing the much coveted $100 million opening weekend, but rather the overall drawing power of his films over the long haul,” he stated.
“To that end he has spent the last decade collaborating with great creative partners to produce some of the most entertaining movies to ever hit the multiplex,” Dergarabedian added.
Nearly half of Cruise’s 43 movies have earned greater than $100 million whole throughout their runs on the home field workplace. His films have generated greater than $10.3 billion in ticket gross sales globally during the last 4 many years.
“As a movie producer Cruise understands the practical dynamics of strong box office results, but he also is plugged into the emotional connection that fans have with the visceral and cinematic power that only movies on the big screen can deliver particularly for his action-oriented films,” Dergarabedian stated.
Disclosure: Comcast is the father or mother firm of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Rotten Tomatoes.