The debate is on over whether or not the U.S. is in a recession , however Goldman Sachs’ high vitality analyst says one key indicator just isn’t flashing warning indicators: commodity markets. Jeff Currie, the agency’s international head of commodities analysis, stated that demand for commodities stays robust, suggesting the U.S. just isn’t in a recession. “If you look at global demand for commodities — oil and metals together — the recession was back in April and May when China went through the severe lockdowns,” he stated Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The overall demand picture — it’s still growing.” Currie famous that whereas a slowdown is happening, demand just isn’t contracting. This “key point,” as he referred to as it, is getting misplaced within the broader narrative, which has grow to be considered one of demand loss and tumbling oil costs. “The reality is that the underlying picture is slower demand growth after a very torrid pace earlier this year and not an outright contraction,” he stated. Ultimately, the bodily and monetary markets are telling totally different tales. But the basics level to a still-tight market. Currie famous that even when the financial system does tip right into a recession, it is more likely to be broad-based and shallow. This is way totally different than the circumstances in 2020, when international lockdowns sapped demand for oil and petroleum merchandise. Oil costs have fallen from their latest highs in March, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine despatched crude surging to the very best degree since 2008 . West Texas Intermediate crude , the U.S. oil benchmark, shed 4.8% on Monday to commerce at $93.88 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude stood at $100.26 per barrel, for a lack of 3.6%. Both benchmarks traded above $130 in March . Currie believes oil will regain that degree. Demand remains to be rising as economies worldwide proceed to emerge from the pandemic. “The upside over the next three to six months is substantial,” he stated, reiterating his $130 end-of-year goal for Brent. “Physically the market is in a deficit still. The pullback in prices will stimulate more demand,” he stated. Currie believes demand might enhance by an extra a million barrels per day. And that does not think about the discharge of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is ready to cease come October. “We would argue in energy the upside potential to reach new highs in the second half of this year is still very, very high,” Currie stated.