Boris Johnson’s landslide common election victory in 2019 secured his place in Number 10, however he can solely keep in publish with the backing of Conservative backbench MPs.
That is now going to be put to the take a look at, with a confidence vote resulting from be held later at present.
It follows the publication of the Sue Gray report into lockdown-breaking events in Number 10 and Whitehall, launched in late May, and the Met Police’s investigation that concluded in late April.
Earlier the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs confirmed he had acquired sufficient letters of no confidence within the prime minister to set off a vote.
So how does the method work and what can we anticipate?
Letters of no confidence
The confidence vote has been referred to as because of Conservative MPs sending letters of no confidence within the PM to the chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Tory backbench MPs.
Often known as “the men in grey suits”, the 1922 Committee is led by an 18-member government committee with a chair elected by committee members.
MPs disgruntled with their get together’s present management can submit no confidence letters to the committee’s chairman, registering their disapproval.
The Conservative Party guidelines state that a minimum of 15% of Tory MPs should write a no confidence letter to make a management problem potential.
This determine at present equates to 54 Conservative MPs needing to submit a letter to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady.
Letters are handed in confidentially, so no correct complete of what number of have been submitted to Sir Graham is publicly accessible. He is subsequently probably the one one that is aware of the actual tally.
In 2018, when former prime minister Theresa May confronted a no confidence vote after the then threshold of 48 letters was reached, Sir Graham mentioned not even his spouse knew what number of MPs had written to him.
At the time, solely 24 MPs had publicly revealed that they had handed in letters.
Politics Hub: Live developments as Boris Johnson faces confidence vote
A vote on the get together management
The vote will happen between 6pm and 8pm this night within the type of a secret poll the place all Conservative MPs should determine in the event that they again the present chief or not.
Mr Johnson must safe the backing of half of his MPs plus one to outlive.
If he had been to realize the backing of the 180 MPs wanted he can be immune from an extra problem for an additional 12 months, below the present guidelines.
If he had been to lose, there can be a management contest and he can be barred from coming into.
However, if Mr Johnson had been to simply scrape sufficient votes to permit him to remain on, he may determine to face down of his personal accord – mechanically triggering a management contest.
A management contest
If Boris Johnson doesn’t safe the arrogance votes required, a management contest can be held to determine his alternative.
The 1922 Committee would set the timetable for the competition.
To participate within the race, a Tory MP needs to be nominated by eight colleagues.
If greater than two MPs put themselves ahead and safe sufficient nominations to run for chief, a collection of secret ballots can be held to whittle them down.
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The particular person who receives the fewest variety of votes can be eradicated after each spherical till two candidates stay.
When simply two MPs are left within the race, get together members get to make their ultimate alternative earlier than a deadline set by the 1922 Committee.
The winner will change into Conservative Party chief and PM.
Assuming the brand new chief was in a position to command the arrogance of the House of Commons, they might not be required to name a common election.
However, a brand new chief may select to name an election in the event that they wished to safe their very own mandate.